According to @godbole17, Bitcoin’s monthly MACD has flipped negative and moved below the zero line, a condition he notes has historically aligned with BTC bear-market phases. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 1, 2025. A sub-zero MACD denotes dominant bearish momentum on higher timeframes and can persist for extended periods before reversing, which traders treat as a risk-off regime. Source: Investopedia MACD explainer. During sub-zero regimes, rallies toward the MACD signal line are often sold and trend-following approaches favor reducing long exposure until a decisive recapture of the zero line confirms momentum reversal. Source: StockCharts ChartSchool on MACD and John J. Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets.

According to @MI_Algos, Bitcoin closed the week above the 21-Month SMA, but only a monthly close above that level would matter for trend validation, while price briefly dipped below before recovering (source: @MI_Algos). Losing the 50-Week SMA with a second consecutive weekly close below it validates that the bull trend is broken on a weekly basis (source: @MI_Algos). The Weekly RSI losing 41 support and printing a second consecutive close below 41 has historically validated bear markets 100% of the time when it occurred in BTC, making it the most reliable macro indicator cited here (source: @MI_Algos). Near-term support at the Q2 2025 Timescape level around $82.5k and the 100-Week SMA was pierced by a wick to $80.5k, potentially an overshoot but with low confidence to hold without further confirmation (source: @MI_Algos). A recovery requires reclaiming the Yearly Open, 50-Week SMA, and 21-Day SMA, plus a Weekly RSI close back above 42 to confirm the bottom; until then, current price action resembles a bear-market exit rally (source: @MI_Algos). Given knee-jerk reactions to data and headlines, volatility is expected to amplify, so traders should prioritize these technical levels over narratives (source: @MI_Algos).

According to @CryptoMichNL, BTC dominance has broken down, and if this weakness continues over the coming weeks it would not signal a bear market in his view (source: X post by Michaël van de Poppe, Nov 20, 2025). For trading, BTC.D tracks Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market capitalization and is widely monitored to assess rotations between BTC and altcoins (source: TradingView BTC.D index). Traders can focus on confirmation of follow-through in BTC.D and adjust BTC versus altcoin exposure only after confirmation aligns with the stated view of ongoing weakness (source: X post by Michaël van de Poppe, Nov 20, 2025; source: TradingView BTC.D index).

According to @cryptorover, Bitcoin’s weekly close versus the 50MA is the key level to watch, and two to three consecutive closes below the 50MA could trigger a bear market confirmation, source: @cryptorover (X, Nov 7, 2025). This sets the author’s explicit confirmation rule for a trend shift, providing a clear trading trigger focused on multiple weekly closes below the 50MA, source: @cryptorover (X, Nov 7, 2025). The author also flags that the coming days and weeks are crucial, underscoring the need to monitor BTC’s weekly close and 50MA closely, source: @cryptorover (X, Nov 7, 2025).